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In the afternoon of the same day, Song Bo sent the collected information to Xia Yu. After Xia Yu browsed, he gave the information to the think tank and asked them to prepare immediately, and came up with a preliminary plan at the meeting two days later. .
Two days later, Song Bo came again, Xia Yu closed the door and held a secret meeting. The preliminary plan was approved by him.
After setting the general direction, Xia Yu was ready to let her financial company secretly do it.
Just when he was about to leave, he received a call from Liu Tianci. The slight information mentioned in the call made him dismiss the idea of going to Jiuding Securities Ltd. and ordered Liu Tianci to come to his office immediately.
After hanging up the phone, Xia Yu thought for a moment, then called Wang Qi and asked him to come to his office, and then he fell into deep thought.
After more than 20 minutes, Liu Tianci have endured the hardships of a long journey.
“Board-Chairman, I’m sorry I am late.”
After speaking apologetically, Liu Tianci smiled and nodded at the rising Wang Qi.
“From Central to here, your speed is fast, sit down and talk!”
After signalling Liu Tianci to sit down, Xia Yu also walked down from the desk and came to the sofa to sit down.
He went straight to the subject and asked: “Tianci, what you mentioned on the phone just now, let me repeat it in detail now.”
“Wang Qi, listen carefully, this matter is extremely important.”
Xia Yu warned Wang Qi repeatedly.
It is rare for Wang Qi to see Board-Chairman Xia Yu’s attitude like this. He was nodded heavily and raised 120% of his attention. His body was slightly in front of Qin, his eyes were burning with Liu Tianci.
Liu Tianci thought for a while and said in detail: “Board-Chairman, just this morning, the Hong Kong Association of Banks held a regular meeting. All members were present to discuss how to deal with a series of negative effects brought about by the appreciation of USD.”
“According to market feedback, the interest rate gap between HKD and Europe USD has now reached 3%, and USD is still rising. Exchange rate risks have further increased. Funds in Hong Kong have already flowed out. Many Hong Kong capital has been transferred to overseas. Hong Kong The investment environment in Hong Kong has deteriorated. If we no longer want to stop capital outflows, the amount of capital in Hong Kong will decrease, and banks’ operating risks will further increase…”
“Hongkong and Shanghai Bank propose to raise interest rates, raising various interest rates by about 1% in order to hedge against the impact of USD appreciation and eliminate the interest spread as much as possible…”
Hearing Liu Tianci’s continuously telling, Wang Qi’s brow furrowed deeper and deeper, and his heart could not be calm.
Hongkong and Shanghai Bank, as note-issuing banks, are now proposing to raise interest rates, so other banks will definitely support it, which can reduce their risks.
To raise interest rates is to raise interest rates, not only deposit rates but also loan rates.
When the interest rate rises, it means that the cost of borrowing for people increases, and the burden on those who lack funds is heavier, and their borrowing needs will be restricted, which increases their burden. Just depositing will increase income.
Once all banks in Hong Kong raise interest rates uniformly to attract short-term capital inflows from outside and reduce or eliminate the deficit, the bank deposits will rise.
Raising interest rates will increase the investment costs of manufacturers. When the interest rate level rises, on the one hand, consumption will be reduced and savings will be increased, which will expand the supply of social funds, which may expand social output. On the other hand, investment may be suppressed, thereby reducing social output.
Even if external funds flow back, most of them will enter the banks. The existing capital in Hong Kong is already so much. If there are more deposits in the banks, the money invested in the capital market will be less, so the stock market trading volume will be Decline, which is somewhat disadvantageous for investment institutions such as Jiuding Securities Ltd.
If the stock market funds do not circulate well, and one is careless, the stock market market will fall!
After Liu Tianci finished speaking, Wang Qi asked impatiently: “Mr. Liu, according to what you just said, Hongkong and Shanghai Bank is only the first proposal. Personally, do you think the interest rate hike proposal will be passed 100%? “
Liu Tianci pondered for a moment, and nodded heavily and said: “Mr. Wang, 100% can’t guarantee, but in my personal opinion, 99% will pass, and it will not exceed half a month. The key now is to raise interest rates. Amount.”
Wang Qi face sank, browse tightly knit, clenched fists subconsciously.
Xia Yu glanced at Wang Qi, and lightly said, “Wang Qi, don’t worry, I think this will happen 100%. It can’t be stopped, and there is no need to stop it.”
It’s no wonder that Xia Yu has this attitude, because he knows the real situation of Hong Kong’s HKD exchange rate. HKD has been pegged to USD since 1972, but this link can be learned.
Hong Kong does not currently implement the linked exchange rate system, so although HKD has always fluctuated with USD at 4:6 to one, it is not the fixed 7:8 to one of the later generation, so under this exchange rate system, The exchange rate freedom of HKD is freedom, but the uncontrollability and risk are also greater.
And now, Hong Kong does not have a Monetary Authority, only the Exchange Fund Authority and the Office of the Supervision of Banking. The Office of the Supervision of Banking is not even as powerful as the Hong Kong Association of Banks, which was transformed from the Hong Kong Association of Foreign Exchange Banks at the beginning of this year. Since HKD’s currency issuance rights are concentrated in the hands of Hongkong and Shanghai Bank and Standard Chartered Bank, the Government of Hong Kong has currency issuance rights, but only 10%.
However, the Exchange Fund Administration is not particularly capable of controlling and intervening foreign exchange due to the exchange rate regime.
Therefore, the Hong Kong Association of Banks can do it on its own, just like the Federal Reserve, raising the bank exchange rate, which indirectly affects the exchange rate.
Seeing that Wang Qi’s brows were still not fully stretched, Xia Yu continued: “Even if the Hong Kong Association of Banks does not make adjustments, then the interest rate difference will always exist, funds will always flow out, and the funds flowing into the stock market will also decrease, when the time comes Not only bad luck for investment institutions, banks also follow bad luck.”
“2 Power harms whichever is less.”
“A rate hike by the Association of Banks is better for Hong Kong than indifferent.”
“The key now is how to deal with the upcoming bear market.”
Bear market! ! !
Xia Yu tone barely fell, Wang Qi was just a shivered, looked towards Xia Yu suddenly, and some nervously asked: “Board-Chairman, do you think the stock market has reached the top?”
Liu Tianci also stared at Xia Yu, and also became nervous, his brain quickly analyzed why the Board-Chairman made such a judgment.
Will the consequences of an interest rate hike announced by the Association of Banks be so serious?
Xia Yu smiled slightly and did not answer Wang Qi’s question, but instead asked, “Wang Qi, where is the HSI now?”
Without hesitation, Wang Qi reported the constant index amount after the market opened this morning: “1800 37 points 3 zero!”
Xia Yu asked again: “Recall the situation in the previous few years, is the current HSI high or low?”
Wang Qi condensed his eyebrows for a long time, thinking further, he felt a bit dry in his mouth, nodded said: “It is already very high, even exceeding the peak of the 1973 stock market crash, creating a record high for Hong Kong stock!”
“But Board-Chairman, although the enthusiasm for stock trading is high, investors are not at all crazy like 1973, and after so many years of development, Hong Kong’s capital market capacity has far surpassed before.”
He was the one who experienced the terrifying stock market crash in 1973 and knew the madness of the stock market at that time.
There have been some crazy phenomena in the market, such as “shark fin fishing for rice”, stock trading resignation full-time stock trading, “abalone porridge”, “fish eggs made with mouse spots”, and “lighting cigarettes with Daniel (HK$500 banknote)”.
There is also a joke among the people that there is also a stock exchange in the Qingshan Mental Hospital, which is specially designed for people who are nervous about sharing shares.
The Government of Hong Kong had to find an excuse to say that the stock exchange has a fire hazard, and sent out firefighting to forcefully expel shareholders in order to cool the stock market.
At that time, the Hang Seng Index reached 1700 70 4 points 9 at its craziest, and then fell to a trough of 6 points one after another in 9 months, a drop of as much as 150 points 100 out of 91.
Although today’s Hang Seng Index surpassed the peak of the 1973 stock market crash and created a record high for Hong Kong stock, Wang Qi is certain that although the market is hot, it is definitely not crazy!
Wang Qi did not realize that it was not because he was unable to do so, but because there were many reasons for this bear market. Interest rate hike alone was not enough to make the stock market crash.
Xia Yu knows very well that the bear market this time can be regarded as a policy market. The interest rate hike has caused the stock market to fluctuate, but because of Hong Kong’s future problems, it is an important reason for market panic and stock market decline.
This life has changed a lot because of his reasons. For example, the current HSI has exceeded the peak of the previous life stock market crash.
However, Xia Yu, who has been watching the general trend, is not panicked. Although the memory of previous life cannot be fully believed, he has self-knowledge. Some things can affect, but some things cannot be interfered by him, such as the future of Taiwan and Hong Kong. problem.
His deep influence is Hong Kong, but the mainland has been staring at Taiwan. Hong Kong is an experimental field, which cannot be changed.
Xia Yu believes that the four-character policy of later generation is definitely brewing, and the time to live is not far away, and he must be able to get news in advance.
Moreover, his energy can also offset the negative influence, the key depends on whether he is willing to do it!
He once thought about actively stabilizing the situation in Hong Kong, but after staying in the United States for a while and returning, he saw that the merger of the 4 institutions had not made any progress. Looking at the Hong Kong Stock Market with 100 loopholes and unsound systems, he Not satisfied!
Hong Kong is his lair. He also wants to build Hong Kong into an international financial capital, but now the Hong Kong Stock Market has 100 loopholes, and a rotten bucket with holes everywhere has to flow away even if it is full of sands!
4 The merger is to rebuild a new bucket, but the progress of the new bucket building is too slow, and things will go wrong!
Now that the Banking Association is about to raise interest rates, the stock market is destined to fluctuate. The key to falling or rising depends on whether he interferes or not, and how he wants the stock market to go.
Now his attitude is very obvious, he wants Hong Kong Stock Market to become a bear!
It’s just that some things didn’t happen here, and he couldn’t provide evidence, so it was inconvenient to tell Wang Qi.
So he can only replied domineeringly: “Wang Qi, your analysis is right, but I need Hong Kong Stock Market to become a bear market!”
Wang Qi suddenly looked at Xia Yu dumbfounded, not knowing what to say.
Liu Tianci frowns to figure out the profound meaning of Xia Yu.
For a long time, Wang Qi asked eagerly: “Board-Chairman, aren’t you going to fight Swire Group?”
“Once the two of us start to fight, the stock market trading volume will surge. The Hang Seng Index will go up. It should be able to offset the negative impact of the bank association’s rate hike. How can this bear market start?”
PS: I opened a big hole without filling a hole, checked the information for the whole night, and learned a lot of things, one hole after another, and all of them were pulled down. I was excited when I thought of the plot behind.
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